Sports Studies and Sports Psychology – Page 20

Leadership and Management Skills of Junior College Athletic Directors

Submitted by Timothy Baghurst, Earl Murray Jr., Chris Jayne and Danon Carter

ABSTRACT
The current and future funding condition for junior college (JC) athletics is unclear, and an athletic program’s budget and funding is usually the responsibility of the athletic director. The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to explore the lived experiences and perceptions of junior college athletic directors to understand financial and leadership issues associated with athletic programs. Sixteen athletic directors (12 male, 4 female) from the same athletic conference in the state of California were interviewed and asked 17 open-ended questions about leadership and the financial issues associated with junior college athletic programs. Three primary themes emerged including leadership, roles and responsibilities, and an unexpected third theme of the student-athlete. Findings and their application to athletic director administration are discussed.

INTRODUCTION
College athletics have become big business, and a university athletic director (AD) plays an integral role in the success of the athletic programs. Colleges and universities at all levels require the managerial skills of an AD. Although leadership and administration of athletics is a frequent focus of research at the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) level, community college (hereto forth referred to as junior college; JC) programs have received little attention. For example, NCAA Division I athletic budgets may vary widely, but substantial budgets are common (14). Thus, application of findings at this level to JC athletic programs is difficult, as JC ADs may face more responsibilities in addition to fewer funding sources and athletic staff at their disposal. Therefore, the focus of this qualitative phenomenological study was to explore the lived experiences of JC ADs in order to determine how they use their leadership to overcome financial challenges experienced by their athletic programs.

Qualities of an AD
Robertson (2008) highlights several traits and skills necessary to be a successful AD. First, he or she must have the capability of creating an environment that helps all members of the program flourish, and all members of the athletic program must have the same goal in mind. Second, an AD must exhibit the ability to take risk, solve problems, think critically, and be a decision maker. Third, they must have the fiscal savvy to promote their university/college in a way that draws fan and community support thereby generating revenue. Thus, fiscal responsibilities of athletic programs are one of the most important challenges athletic administrators deal with at all levels (20).

JC Leadership Qualities
Nahavandi (2006) defined a leader as “any person who influences individuals and groups within an organization, helps them in the establishment of goals and guides them toward achievement of those goals, thereby allowing them to be effective” (p. 4). Another definition of leadership is “the capacity to influence others by unleashing their power and potential to impact the greater good” (4). Consistent with both definitions, leadership requires the ability to influence followers and guide them toward a goal.

Athletic directors are expected to display leadership skills in overseeing the day-to-day operations of the athletic department, but leadership is also necessary to manage the budget and financials of the program (13). There are several qualities of effective leadership as well as factors that impact the effectiveness of leadership. Effective leadership is defined by the effect on followers. Key traits of effective leaders as described by Kirkpatrick and Locke (1991) include drive, integrity, intelligence, motivation to lead, and knowledge of the business. Overall, leadership success is defined by the effectiveness of leaders to influence followers in every relevant aspect.

Junior college ADs must possess certain leadership qualities or characteristics to be successful. These characteristics include ethics or strong moral values, competence, self-confidence, and a desire to influence (28). Followers must trust the decisions and behaviors of ADs as well as believe in the direction being led. Leadership styles most attributed to ADs are transformational and situational leadership, as these styles incorporates change management, practicality, and flexibility as well as the success these leadership styles have on influencing others.

JC Athletic Finances
The funding for state colleges are being reduced across the country; and this is causing economic instability within many JC athletic programs (34). Junior college ADs are faced with difficult decisions when it comes to their athletic programs, which primarily revolve around the sustainability of the program. In many cases, there is outside pressure to add athletic teams to their program, while in others situations, ADs have to decide to keep a team or cut it from their program to save money (36). In 2009, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour addressed the state’s JC ADs to explain that they needed to scale back the number of athletic teams that they offered, or the schools would have to drop athletics altogether (34).

Leadership is a key to any successful company, and sports administration is no different. However, how an AD may use his or her acquired leadership techniques to maintain and allow an athletic department to flourish under his or her guidance is unclear. This is particularly true at the JC level, where research is limited. Although there are similarities between the roles and responsibilities of ADs at JC compared with larger four-year universities, there are also differences. According to Lewis & Quarterman (2006), the three most important decisions and choices ADs make for managing and leading JC athletic programs are the enjoyment of athletics, the athletic environment, and a desire to learn more about the sports business. ADs from large universities have a greater focus on fiscal management where much of their time is focused on management, leadership, finance, marketing, ethics, legalities, and governance (2). This is not to say that JC ADs ignore ethical or legal issues, for example, but it is not considered their priority.

Although there are large financial deviations within NCAA Division I athletic programs, (14; 37), only a few operate profitably (10). Thus, the university is placed with a financial burden of justifying the existence of a program, and many DI ADs must turn to donors to gain the fiscal capital needed to balance their athletic budgets (35). For example, in the summer of 2012, facing a $4 million deficit, Maryland University decided to eliminate seven competitive athletic teams (17). Similarly, other prominent universities have taken drastic measures to ensure the survival of their athletic programs as a whole: University of California-Berkley had to cut five teams in 2010 and Rutgers University was forced to drop six competitive athletic teams in 2007 (3).

Unfortunately for ADs at the JC level, the financial situation is even bleaker. Most junior colleges lack the same opportunities. Fewer boosters are available and revenue generated at events is lower. Sustainability is a larger concern because of many educational cuts in state funding (Steinback, 2010). Success at the National Junior College Athletic Association (NJCAA) level does not always equal financial gain or even a program the next year. For example, in 2009 Minneapolis Community and Technical College lost only its second game of the year in the NJCAA DIII national championship game only to have the athletic department shut down completely shortly after. In order to continue to have an athletic program, some institutions have been required to cut the football program; although it is the biggest revenue provider, it is also the most expensive (34).

Study Purpose
The roles and responsibilities of an NCAA AD are well-documented, but less so are those of a JC AD, particularly as they pertain to leadership and financial skills. The current and future funding condition for JC athletics is unclear (6). A better understanding of the skills and qualities necessary for success could be vital as JCs search for their next AD. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to explore the perceived leadership and financial skills of 16 JC ADs to better understand how leadership and financial skills in athletic programs might contribute to success. The qualitative, phenomenological study consisted of semi-structured interviews and asked ADs not only what it was like to serve in that capacity, but also to explain, (1) the relationship between ADs’ perceptions about leadership and funding JC athletic programs, and (2) the relationship between ADs’ perceived leadership skills and financing JC athletic programs. It was intended that ADs explain in general how they perceive leadership and how it is relevant in managing programs. Then, participants were asked to detail their perceived leadership skills to manage programs effectively.

METHOD
Participants
Participants were 16 ADs (12 male, 4 female) from JCs in California who were purposefully selected because they were knowledgeable about athletic programs and financing (11). Participants’ experience ranged between 10 and 21 years (see Table 1). Currently employed ADs were used to provide real-time feedback as opposed to retroactive data.

Procedures
Following university IRB approval, 20 ADs currently employed at a JC within the same athletic conference were mailed a letter to request an interview. From the 20 requests, three participants returned the letter agreeing to participate. The remaining 17 participants were contacted by telephone from which a further 13 agreed to participate.

Prior to each interview participants were asked to sign a consent form. All face-to- face interviews lasted between 25 and 50 minutes and were conducted within a one-month period. The interviews were conducted at a neutral site of the participant’s choosing. A mini cassette recorder was used to record all interviews in their entirety. All interviews were manually transcribed by the researcher using audacity-recording software. Following transcription, each participant was sent his or her transcript to confirm its accuracy.

Instruments
In qualitative research, the researcher is the primary instrument by exploring the phenomenon under study (7). Open-ended questions navigate and focus descriptions of a particular experience through intuition and reflection of that experience. A phenomenological study requires the interviewer to achieve, or attempt to achieve, a state of epoche, the elimination of suppositions and placement of knowledge above every possible doubt (24). Thus, the primary researcher made every effort to suppress any predisposed opinions or presumptions during this study regarding the phenomenon. This allowed the researcher to grasp and freshly comprehend the participants’ experiences with the phenomenon (12).
A face-to-face interview technique with open-ended questions was the most appropriate data collection method as it allowed for some deviation while simultaneously ensuring consistent structure across interviews (12). The semi-structured, open-ended questioning interview process was designed to direct the participant toward his or her lived experiences (27).
NVivo9™ software, in accordance with the modified van Kaam data analysis method, was used to analyze interview transcripts, and identify common themes, and patterns (25). Furthermore, the software package provided a digital transcript of audio files, import, and coding of interview transcripts and aided the exploration of potential emerging themes using a step-by-step process.

Data Validity, Reliability, and Triangulation
Validity is how accurately the account represents participants’ realities of the phenomenon and their credibility (16). To establish the validity for this study, transcripts were shared with the participants to ensure that the data was accurate prior to analysis, which is an important dimension of good quality research (9). This allowed participant to edit, revise, or add information prior to data analysis, none of which did. If both validity and reliability are the goal of qualitative research, the use of triangulation to record the construction of reality is appropriate (18). Triangulation occurs when different data sources, methods of data collection, or types of data are evidence to support research data (12). In the present study, participants were sent interview transcripts and themes derived from the data to ensure its accuracy as a second data source as well as confirm thematic analysis.

Data Analysis
According to Bradley, Curry, and Devers (2007), there is no singular way to conduct qualitative data analysis, although there is general agreement that the process is ongoing. An important first step is to immerse and comprehend the meaning (5). A modification of the van Kaam method of analysis for phenomenological data, which occurs through a multi-step process, was employed in the present study (24). This method identifies common themes and patterns used by participants in a qualitative research study.

The first step requires data to be organized, transcribed, and coded. Organization of data is critical in qualitative research because of the large amount of information gathered during the study (12). The data was organized by material type: all interviews, all observations, and all documents. Finally, data was coded.

The next step in the modified van Kaam data analysis method requires participants’ statements to be categorized, clustered, coded, and labeled into groups (24). The common themes constituting the core elements of the lived experiences of the participants were most important. Coding is a process of making sense of the data, dividing the data into text or image segments, labeling the segments with codes, examining codes for overlap and redundancy, and collapsing these codes into broad themes (12).

RESULTS
The premise of this study was to develop an understanding about the leadership skills of ADs with a particular focus on financial expertise. A semi-structured interview process was used to develop an overall analysis of expert thinking. The analysis revealed three emerging themes: (a) leadership, (b) roles and responsibilities, and (c) student-athletes. Each theme is explained and then supported by participant quotes.

Theme One: Leadership
With respect to leadership, leadership skills, types, and supervision were considered important. Participants mentioned the skills to self-evaluate and feedback and how important it was to reflect on their own performances. Self-evaluation is necessary in addition to soliciting feedback from others who might be able to provide insight. Participant 1 said,

I think through and self-evaluate, and each year I am evaluated by the Vice President and President of the college. The evaluation process also includes coaches, the trainer, and the secretary to find out what I need to improve on and set some goals.

Participant 12 stated, “Understanding my leadership skills involves listening to feedback and asking questions about how I am doing. A good leader must be open to constructive criticism and be a good listener and respect others’ opinions.”

The leadership of ADs may also influence the success of programs. According to Participant 6,

I am a leader by example as a positive person. I am reasonable and approachable, and [I] motivate with pride. I am a leader who likes to inspire others to be better. I am successful if our programs are. I want my coaches and student-athletes to be successful. I want to get the most out of people and care about what they are doing as followers.

Furthermore, Participant 3 said that

As a transformational leader, I look at the goals and vision of the athletic department and what needs to be done for the long term. Each athletic program has different needs and I look at the short and long term goals.

Theme Two: Roles and Responsibilities
A JC AD has multiple roles and responsibilities, but balancing budgets, securing funding, and distributing it appropriately was mentioned frequently. This is supported by Participant 6 who stated that, “Overseeing the budgets is a big part of my job. We have so much money for each program. Every program has a different number of student-athletes, coaches, etc. Each budget is different.”

Athletic directors must be able to budget well for each program they oversee. This is a challenge, as they must find ways to generate revenue to keep the programs active. For example, Participant 7 referred to fundraising.

Fundraising is the best way. I do not know of a community college that does not
fundraise. Most institutions cannot provide things such as backpacks or gear. There are strict rules about what can be purchased with state or district dollars. When there is a shortfall of funds, we have to fundraise to support the programs.

Participant 16 found that securing the necessary budget for JC athletics is frequently a challenge.

Money is very tight for athletic programs at community colleges. As a staff, we must fundraise to keep the programs going. The coaches fundraise for their sport. Some fundraising activities may be charity golf tournaments, barbeques, or bake sales.

Although finances are just one component of the responsibilities of an AD, it is apparent that they are a significant concern. For example, according to Participant 14, “The budget consumes 70% of my time to ensure the programs are run effectively.”

The decisions about athletic programs are a major responsibility for ADs. Participants reported that Title IX Gender Equity was a concern when adding, removing, or maintaining a program. “Title IX gender equity and compliance is a big issue, and we have to evaluate our athletic programs when considering adding or dropping a program”, said Participant 9. Participant 15, who stated that decisions about programs were made in consideration of Title IX and gender equity, supported this. Thus, it becomes a balancing act of meeting guidelines or policies while simultaneously ensuring that there is a sufficient budget.

I try to keep all my athletic programs. I try to make sure they are maintained with enough dollars coming in to keep them going. Terminating a program is the last thing I try to do. If nothing else, adding a program is a good thing but that takes money.

(Participant 16)

In JC athletics, things can change quickly, an AD must make decisions concerning their coaching staff who are responsible for the student-athlete. Thus, a change in a staff member may directly impact the athletic program and the student-athletes. According to Participant 4,
In athletics, change happens often. I deal with change by telling my coaches about changes and we work together on making changes when the time comes. Some people resist change, but change is a reality in athletics.

It is important, therefore, for the AD to be cognizant of upcoming change, and keep the staff apprised of changes that might impact them.

My coaches must deal with change the most because they spend the most time with the student-athletes. I teach them about change, when change is going to take place, how it affect their programs, and help them with change. Some adapt to change well, and others do not. I work with them all.

(Participant 8)

Theme Three: Student-Athletes
Some ADs reported the additional responsibility of having to coach. Although an AD wants to win both as a coach and director, there is recognition of balancing athletic success with academic success. In fact, the ADs placed academics above athletics. According to Participant 16, “The student-athlete should manage time by first looking at their academic responsibilities first then sports.” This is further supported by other examples.

The balance is placing academics ahead of athletics. The student-athlete must be organized and set up time schedules. A balanced student-athlete focuses toward academics and although athletics is important, earning good grades is equally important.

(Participant 14)

Athletic directors recognize that academic success is a reflection on the future prospects of the student-athlete, but also on the JC. Transferring to a larger institution is important for many students.

A student-athlete who cares about moving on beyond a two year college will do a good job with balancing academics and athletics. Although the student-athlete can do well in a sport, the student must have a good grade point average to transfer.

(Participant 8)

Motivation plays a big role in the student-athlete performance athletically and academically. The ADs are tasked with working with coaches to assist with motivating athletes. Just as a coach is a mentor to an athlete, the AD must serve as a mentor to the coach. According to Participant 13, “The athletic director sets the stage for the coaches to motivate the student-athletes.”

I try to promote morale and motivation with my coaches who are the leaders for the student-athlete. The coaches are mentors who motivate and inspire the student-athlete to good. As the athletic director I train the coaches to engage the student-athlete.

(Participant 2)

Some student-athletes are less self-motivated than others and require external motivation to perform better in a sport or academics. The ability to prioritize athletics and completing coursework with passing grades can be a challenge, yet “Increasing his or her self-motivation in the classroom can lead to a successful student-athlete” (Participant 11). Participant 6 noted that athletics has a tendency to be placed ahead of academics.

The challenged student-athlete lacks self-motivation, direction, and the ability to manage their time. This type of student-athlete lacks the passion for being engaged academically to learn in the classroom. They place athletics ahead of academics, which may be why they have difficulties earning good grades in the classroom.

DISCUSSION
The purpose of this qualitative, phenomenological study was to explore ADs lived experiences and perceptions of leadership in JC athletic programs particularly in reference to finances. Interview analysis revealed three main themes of leadership, roles and responsibilities, and the student-athlete. Each theme is discussed in light of current research.

Theme One: Leadership
Athletic directors recognized the importance of leadership in influencing the behavior and actions of others. According to Smith (1997), “As leaders face greater uncertainties and changes, and compounded complexities, they strive for greater flexibility and agility” (p. 277). In the present study, ADs saw their role as leaders encompassing a variety of roles and responsibilities as evidenced in the second theme. What is most important with these varying roles and responsibilities is the opportunity to receive feedback on their performance and make the appropriate adjustments based on the feedback received. “Effective leaders learn that comprehensive systematic reviews and evaluations should include every type of resource, every competency and capacity, and every person and position that affects performance” (33). Thus, some participants acquired evaluations from superiors, such as the college president or those working for the participant such as coaches, and applied this feedback to improve their leadership styles and effectiveness. Overall, the feedback an AD receives is a measuring tool for effectiveness in their role.

Theme Two: Roles and Responsibilities
Balancing budgets and securing funding was a clear concern for the participants. Many participants indicated that they were responsible for preparing the budget. A participative budget process involves lower-level administrators and coaches who better understand the individual line items who are responsible for the athletic department’s budget than senior administrators. A top down budgeting process offers short-term budgets imposed by senior administrators more likely to be consistent with the strategic long-term goals and objectives of the athletic department (20). Thus, those ADs expected to complete budgets without the use of participative budget methodology may experience higher levels of stress (32). Participative budgeting is supported by Wickstrom (2006), as an authoritative style of leadership is not conducive to the work force of the modern era, and that to be a successful leader an AD has to be willing to listen to those they lead.

The present study further found that gender equity and the budgetary requirements that stem from Title IX was considered both a financial and leadership challenge. This is not surprising, as gender equity at JCs has been clearly documented (8). A balance needs to exist between athletic sports programs relative to women’s sports and Title IX laws (19). Some ADs are faced with the decision to cut sports programs (Steinback, 2010) and must be cognizant of their current Title IX standing so that there does not become an imbalance of participation opportunities. Thus, there remains work to be done in achieving a standard of gender equity that not only meets the intent of Title IX but fully affords the respect of dignity for female student-athletes (19). As two-year athletic programs consider new directions, the achievement of gender equity within two year athletic programs still needs to be addressed (19), which is recognized by the participants of the present study.
Theme Three: Student-Athletes
The relationship that ADs had with student-athletes was an unexpected finding. This may be in part because some ADs reported the additional responsibility of serving as a coach. The extra coaching duties may cause additional stressors because it limits the time they have to devote to the financial responsibilities of the profession (21). Participants recognized that they were responsible with the coaches for improving both student athletic and academic performance. Participants stressed the importance of academics over athletics, but this may be due to efforts by the administration to increase retention and graduation rates (29). Not only did ADs report high levels of interaction with student-athletes, they generally viewed it as part of their responsibility to motivate the student to achieve both in athletics and in the classroom. That ADs viewed this as a component of their leadership was unexpected, as this task is frequently the responsibility of a coach or even assistant (15).

Limitations and Future Research
Although the present study provides some interesting findings, they should be evaluated with respect to its limitations. First, this study was limited to current full-time ADs at JCs in the state of California, which may not translate to the experiences of ADs in other locations or athletic conferences. Second, only four participants were female. This is not uncommon (1), and future research should consider whether opinions and perceptions differ between genders. For example, impressions of Title IX may differ by gender (1), and Title IX challenges may differ between JCs and traditional four-year institutions. Third, the specific financial expertise of each participant was not assessed. Therefore, future research should consider whether financial education and training improves AD financial expertise and progress toward short, intermediate, and long term strategic goals. The recommendation may benefit both low-level and senior level administrators at the JC. In addition, future researchers should consider conducting a broader survey of the general background and experiences of ADs in JCs.

CONCLUSIONS
The success of collegiate athletic programs can depend upon the skills of their ADs (31). Thus, they must possess leadership skills across multiple disciplines. Because financial and budgetary concerns were most prevalent among the participants of the present study, future research needs to investigate the training being provided for ADs. The financing and budget process is vital in ensuring that athletic programs are successful, and an action plan is needed for current and future ADs to use as a model to understand the entire financial and budget process of funding athletics programs.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
Empirical research has focused primarily on the Division I AD. However, these findings suggest that JC ADs encounter a variety of challenges which have not been investigated. JC administrators need to consider the budgetary and fundraising background and expertise of applicants, which is a paramount responsibility of ADs in JC.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
None
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U.S. Sports Academy2014-03-06T15:54:25-06:00March 3rd, 2014|Contemporary Sports Issues, General, Sports Management, Sports Studies and Sports Psychology|Comments Off

Correlates of Performance at the USRowing Youth National Championships: A Case Study of 152 Junior Rowers

Submitted by Alex Wolff & Pavle Mikulic

ABSTRACT
This study was designed to assess the extent of the relationship between a number of variables (2000 m rowing ergometer score, weight adjusted 2000 m rowing ergometer score, height, weight, and years of experience) and placement at the USRowing Youth National Championships, in order to highlight areas for college recruiters and aspiring junior rowers to focus on. Data for 152 athletes competing in 18 events was collected. Data collection was accomplished through a site search of “berecruited.com” for the keywords “youth nationals” “nationals” and “rowing”; athletes reported placement was then verified against the official race results. Athletes were subdivided into categories based on boat size, event type, weight class, and gender. In almost all categories (with the exception of men’s open weight sweep and lightweight sculls) a significant (p<0.05) correlation between rowing ergometer score and placement was established. The highest correlation between rowing ergometer score and placement was observed in women’s lightweight sculls (r=0.76). Weight adjustment provided notable improvements in only two categories over unadjusted ergometer score: men’s open weight sculls (r=0.79 vs. r=0.72) and men’s lightweight sculls (r=0.49 vs. r=0.42). Weight independent of ergometer score and experience did not correlate with final rankings. Height independent of ergometer score correlated with final rankings in only one category - men’s open sculls (r=0.38). While it is possible that the small sample sizes in some categories may have impacted the results, a clear trend emerges emphasizing the importance of unadjusted rowing ergometer score over other factors in evaluating junior rowers at the national level.

INTRODUCTION
Rowing is a strength-endurance activity that requires both aerobic and anaerobic capability for successful performance (Maestu, Jurimae, & Jurimae, 2005; Secher, 2000). A typical rowing race takes place over a 2000 m course and, depending on the boat category and weather conditions, is characterized by 5.5 – 7.5 minutes of exhaustive physical effort. Rowing comprises two distinct, but closely related disciplines: sculling and sweep rowing. The main distinction between the two is that sculling involves the use of two oars per rower, one in each hand, versus only one slightly larger oar for sweep rowers. Of the two, sculling is considered more technically demanding, and sweep is more popular, particularly at the collegiate level where major sculling regattas are largely nonexistent. All rowing boats can also be divided into two additional categories: small boats (boats with one or two crew members, i.e. single sculls, double sculls and pairs) and large boats (boats with four or eight rowers, i.e. quadruple sculls, coxed and coxless fours and eights). Typically, the larger the boat is, the more stable it becomes because of the additional hull width and length. Because of this, a single can be a much different boat to row than an eight. Additionally, larger boats increase the importance of synchronization of crew members’ strokes to achieve increased speed (Baudouin & Hawkins, 2002). A more recent addition to the world of competitive rowing has been the advent of lightweight events. USRowing defines lightweight junior rowers as weighing no more than 160 or 130 pounds for men and women, respectively. Lightweight events at Youth National Championships are lightweight double, lightweight four, and lightweight eight.

Besides its international popularity as a competitive sport and its continuous presence on Olympic Games from the very first modern Olympic Games held in 1896 in Athens, Greece, rowing is also a major collegiate sport in various countries, including the United States. With this in mind, it may be of particular interest for college recruiters to gain a better understanding of the factors that contribute to rowing performance in junior rowers competing at the most important event at the national level: the USRowing Youth National Championships. Likewise, it may be important for prospective junior rowers and their coaches to be able to focus on those factors which contribute to greater on-water performance.

College recruiters are continuously striving to improve the selection process for their rowing teams and, when assessing a junior rower’s ability, they can be presented with a wide array of factors to consider. With this in mind, we designed this study to assess the strength of association between a number of objective variables and race placement at the USRowing Youth National Championships. The variables we examined include years of experience, body height, body weight, 2000 m rowing ergometer score and 2000 m weight adjusted rowing ergometer score. Based on our two earlier studies (Mikulic et al. 2009a,b) in which we observed a strong correlation between 2000 m rowing ergometer performance scores and final rankings at both World Rowing Championships and World Junior Rowing Championships, we hypothesized that 2000 m rowing ergometer score (an “all-out” effort over a distance of 2000 m) would be the strongest correlate to placement at the USRowing Youth National Championships. However, the extent to which this is true and the relation of other variables to rowing performance in junior rowers competing at the USRowing Youth National Championships has yet to be determined.

METHODS
The data for this study was collected by performing a site search of athlete’s profiles on the “berecruited.com” web site. This site allows athletes to upload their information such as personal best 2000 m ergometer score along with other facts such as their height, weight, and notable race results, all in an effort to increase their visibility to college recruiters. We performed the search using the keywords “youth nationals” “nationals” and “rowing”. Those profiles which listed a 2012 or 2013 Youth Nationals result were then matched to the official race results from their respective year to verify that athletes reported placement. Once verified, that athlete’s information and placement was included in the data set. The variables recorded were: 2000 m rowing ergometer score (personal best), height, weight, years of experience, and weight adjusted 2000 m ergometer score based on the following formula (6):

Adjusted ergometer score = (rower weight/270)^0.22* ergometer score in seconds

The data was then divided into a number of sub categories which were as follows: open weight overall, open category scull and open category sweep. Rowers were further classified as open category men, open category women, lightweight men, and lightweight women. The correlation between each factor and placement was established for each category using the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The significance of correlation coefficients was tested to a confidence of p=0.05. In addition, we performed a series of independent samples t-tests to examine the differences in rowing ergometer scores between selected groups of rowers.

RESULTS
Tables 1 and 2 indicate that 2000 m ergometer scores, both in absolute values and adjusted to a rower’s weight, demonstrate the most consistent association with final rankings at the USRowing Youth Championships. This is especially evident in women’s events in which the correlations between the ergometer scores and final rankings were evident in all of the observed categories (i.e. scull and sweep, open category and lightweight rowers).

Table 1. Correlation coefficients between final rankings at the USRowing Youth Championships and five observed variables in groups of male junior rowers

Table 2. Correlation coefficients between final rankings at the USRowing Youth Championships and five observed variables in groups of female junior rowers

T-tests were utilized to test for differences in ergometer scores between sweep oar rowers and scullers (Table 3). The only category in which a significant difference was observed between scullers and sweep oar rowers was the men’s lightweight category. There was no significant difference between women’s lightweight sweep oar rowers and scullers, women’s open category sweep oar rowers and scullers, or men’s open category sweep oar rowers and scullers. Similarly, when ergometer scores of big vs. small boat rowers were compared, no significant differences were observed across the categories except for the men’s lightweight category (Table 4).

Table 3. 2000-m Rowing ergometer scores (in seconds) for various categories of rowers and independent samples t-test results for differences between sweep oar rowers vs. scullers

Table 4. 2000 m Rowing ergometer scores (in seconds) for various categories of rowers and independent samples t-test results for differences between rowers in small vs. big boats

DISCUSSION
In this study we aimed to identify the variables that showed the strongest association with the final rankings at the most important competition for junior rowers in the US – the USRowing Youth Championships. The results (Tables 1 and 2) indicate that 2000 m rowing ergometer scores, both in absolute values and adjusted to body weight, displayed the strongest correlations across categories, both for junior men and women. In junior men, the strongest correlations were observed for open category sculling events (r=0.72 for ergometer score; r=0.79 for weight adjusted ergometer score) while in junior women the strongest correlation were observed for lightweight category sculling events (r=0.76 for both ergometer score and weight adjusted ergometer score). These findings largely corroborate findings from our earlier study (Mikulic et al. 2009a) in which we observed moderate to high correlation coefficients between 2000 m rowing ergometer score and final rankings at the World Rowing Junior Championships. In that study, rowing ergometer scores of junior rowers correlated with their final rankings in all 13 events in which the junior rowers competed at the 2007 World Rowing Junior Championships with the correlation coefficient ranging from r=0.31 to r=0.92.

Weight adjusted rowing ergometer scores are ergometer scores normalized to that specific rowers speed in an eight boat. Since heavier rowers sink the boat further into the water, thus creating more wetted surface and drag, they must be capable of producing greater power to achieve the same speed as a lighter rower. This should, in theory, improve upon the correlation produced by non-weight-adjusted scores which we failed to observe on a consistent basis in the present study (Tables 1 and 2). The categories for which weight adjustment provided the largest improvement (men’s open and lightweight sculls) had comparatively small standard deviations versus other groups. It is possible that weight adjustment thus becomes more of a factor since the difference in “raw power” (represented by the ergometer score) between rowers was not as exaggerated as other categories for which weight adjustment provided no improvement.

Experience, height and weight of junior rowers did not generally correlate with final rankings at the USRowing Youth Championships, with the exception of height which correlated with the final rankings in junior men’s open category sculling events (r=-0.38), and experience which correlated with final rankings in junior women’s open category sculling events (r=-0.52). This general lack of association between the body size variables (i.e. height and weight) and final rankings at the Championships is somewhat surprising given the well documented importance of body size for rowing performance (for a review, see Shephard, 1998) including rowing performance at the junior level (Burgois 2000; 2001). It is possible that since Youth Nationals is a lower level of competition than junior worlds, the regatta analyzed in the studies cited, the larger variance in skill and general fitness (and, by extension, the ergometer score) would outweigh the importance of body size.

There appear to be no differences in 2000 m rowing ergometer scores of junior male and female rowers who compete in sculling vs. sweep rowing events (Table 3). The exception are junior men’s lightweight categories in which scullers are about 10 seconds faster than their counterparts from sweep rowing boats. Similarly, 2000 m rowing ergometer scores of junior men and women do not appear to differ for those competing in big vs. the small boats. Again, the only exception are junior lightweight categories in which rowers competing in a small boat are about 10 seconds faster than their counterparts competing in a big boat. Apparently, 2000 m ergometer score does not appear to be a factor for selecting a junior rower to a sculling vs. the sweep boat or the big vs. the small boat. In our earlier study (Mikulic et al., 2009a) we also observed no differences between 2000 m ergometer scores of scullers and sweep rowers competing at the 2007 World Junior Championship, either for male or female rowers (no rowers compete in lightweight categories at World Junior Championships). However, in that study, we also observed that better 2000 m ergometer performers tended to be selected to large boats. We must, however, mention a limitation of comparing 2000 m ergometer scores of various groups of junior rowers in this study as the numbers of rowers in comparing groups differed substantially thus reducing the accuracy of t-test analyses.

CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, the most important factor to consider in the recruitment of junior rowers is rowing ergometer score over 2000 meters. This finding largely confirmed our original hypothesis. In certain categories (particularly men’s open weight categories), weight adjusting provided some improvements and may be useful in distinguishing between candidates with similar ergometer scores. Years of experience, height, and weight independent of ergometer score were shown to have very little correlation with actual boat speed.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
When evaluating junior rowers as potential candidates for recruitment, the most important factor appears to be the 2000 m rowing ergometer score. While weight adjustment can in certain scenarios aid in evaluation, it is only marginally effective at best. Experience, height, and weight should be largely ignored as these factors have very little impact on boat speed. Junior rowers looking to perform well at Youth National Championships should focus their efforts on improving their 2000 m rowing ergometer scores.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
None

REFERENCES
1. Baudouin, A., & D. Hawkins. (2002). A biomechanical review of factors affecting rowing performance. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 36(6), 396-402.

2. Maestu, J., Jurimae, J., & Jurimae, T. (2005). Monitoring of performance and training in rowing. Sports Medicine, 35, 597–617.

3. Secher, N. H. (2000). Rowing. In R. J. Shephard & P. O. A°strand (Eds.), Endurance in sport (pp. 836–843). Oxford: Blackwell Science.

4. Mikulic, P., Smoljanovic, T., Bojanic, I., Hannafin, J., Pedisic, Z. (2009a). Does 2000-m rowing ergometer performance time correlate with final rankings at the World Junior Rowing Championship? A case study of 398 elite junior rowers. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(4), 361–366.

5. Mikulic, P., Smoljanovic, T., Bojanic, I., Hannafin, J.A., Matkovic, B.R. (2009b). Relationship between 2000-m rowing ergometer performance times and World Rowing Championships rankings in elite-standard rowers. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(9), 907–913.

6. Weight Adjustment Calculator. (n.d.). Home. Retrieved November 23, 2013, from http://www.concept2.com/indoor-rowers/training/calculators/weight-adjustment-calculator

7. Bourgois, J., Claessens, A.L., Vrijens, J., Philippaerts, R., Van Renterghem, B., Thomis, M. et al. (2000). Anthropometric characteristics of elite male junior rowers. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 34, 213-216.

8. Bourgois J, Claessens AL, Janssens M, Van Renterghem B, Loos R, Thomis M, Philippaerts R, Lefevre J, Vrijens J. (2001). Anthropometric characteristics of elite female junior rowers. Journal of Sports Sciences, 19(3), 195-202.

9. Shephard, R.J. (1998). Science and medicine of rowing: a review. Journal of Sports Sciences, 16, 603-620.

U.S. Sports Academy2016-04-01T09:27:20-05:00March 3rd, 2014|Contemporary Sports Issues, Sports Exercise Science, Sports Studies and Sports Psychology|Comments Off

Factors Affecting Scoring in NFL Games and Beating the Over/Under Line

Submitted by C. Barry Pfitzner, Steven D. Lang and Tracy D. Rishel

ABSTRACT
In this paper we attempt to predict the total points scored in National Football League (NFL) games for the 2010-2011 season. Separate regression equations are identified for predicting points for the home and away teams in individual games based on information known prior to the games. The sum of the predictions for the home and away teams computed from the regression equations (updated weekly) are then compared to the over/under line on individual NFL games in a wagering experiment to determine if a successful betting strategy can be identified. All predictions in this paper are out-of-sample—meaning that all of the information necessary for the predictions was available before the games were played. Using this methodology, we find that several successful wagering strategies could have been applied to the 2010-2011 NFL season. We also estimate a single equation to predict the over/under line for individual games. That is, we test to see if the variables we have collected and formulated are important in predicting the betting line for NFL games. These results can be used by either bettors or bookmakers wanting to increase their odds of success in the gaming industry.

INTRODUCTION
Bookmakers set over/under lines for virtually all NFL games. Suppose the over/under line for total points in a particular game is 40. Suppose further that a gambler wagers with the bookmaker that the actual points scored in the game will exceed 40, that is, he bets the “over.” If the teams then score more than 40 points, the gambler wins the wager. If the teams score under 40 points, the gambler loses the bet. If the teams score exactly 40 points, the wager is tied and no money changes hands. The process works symmetrically for bets that the teams will score fewer than 40 points, or betting the “under.” The over/under line differs, of course, on individual games. Since losing bets pay a premium (often called the “vigorish,” “vig,” or “juice” and typically equal 10%), the bookmakers will profit as long the money bet on the “over” is approximately equal to the amount of money bet on the “under” (bookmakers also sometimes “take a position,” that is, they will welcome unbalanced bets from the public if the bookmaker has strong feelings regarding the outcome of the wager [see also the reference to Levitt’s work in the literature review]). It is widely known a gambler must win 52.4% of the wagers to be successful. That particular calculation can be established simply. Let Pw = the proportion of winning bets and (1 – Pw ) = the proportion of losing bets. The equation for breaking even on such bets where every winning wager nets $10 and each losing wager represents a loss of $11 is:
Pw ($10) = (1 – Pw ) ($11) , and solving for Pw
Pw = 11∕21 = .5238, or approximately 52.4%

This research attempts to identify methods of predicting the total points scored in a particular game based on information available prior to that game. The primary research question is whether or not these methods can then be utilized to formulate a successful gambling strategy for the over/under wager, with success requiring a winning percentage of at least 52.4%.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: in the next section we describe the efficient markets hypothesis as it applies to the NFL wagering market; we then offer a brief review of the literature; in the following section we describe the data and method; descriptive statistics and the main regression results are then presented; these are followed by the wagering simulations; we next discuss our investigation of the determinants of the over/under line; and finally offer our conclusions.

NFL Betting as a Test of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
A number of important papers have treated wagering on NFL games as a test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This hypothesis has been widely studied in economics and finance, often with focus on either stock prices or foreign exchange markets. Because of the difficulties of capturing EMH conclusions given the complexities of those markets, some researchers have turned to the simpler betting markets, including sports (and the NFL), as a vehicle for such tests.

If the EMH holds, asset prices are formed on the basis of all information. If true, then the historical time series of such asset prices would not provide information that would allow investors to outperform the naïve strategy of buy-and-hold (see, for example, Vergin 2001). As applied to NFL betting, if the use of past performance information on NFL teams cannot generate a betting strategy that would exceed the 52.4% win criterion, the EMH hypothesis holds for this market. Thus, the thrust of much of the research on the NFL has taken the form of attempts to find winning betting strategies, that is, strategies that violate the weak form of the EMH.

A Brief Review of the Recent Literature
Nearly all of the extant literature on NFL betting uses the point “spread” as the wager of interest. The spread is the number of points by which one team (the favorite) is favored over the opponent (the underdog). Suppose team A is favored over team B by 7 points. A wager on team A is successful only if team A wins by more than 7 points (also known as “covering” the spread). Symmetrically, a wager on team B is successful only if team B loses by fewer than 7 points or, of course, team B wins or ties the game—in any of these cases, team B “covers.” Vergin (2001) and Gray and Gray (1997) are examples of research that focus on the spread.

Based on NFL games from 1976 to 1994, Gray and Gray (1997) find some evidence that the betting spread is not an unbiased predictor of the actual point spread on NFL games. They argue that the spread underestimates home team advantage, and overstates the favorite’s advantage. They further find that teams who have performed well against the spread in recent games are less likely to cover in the current game, and those teams that have performed poorly in recent games against the spread are more likely to cover in the current game. Further Gray and Gray find that teams with better season-long win percentages versus the spread (at a given point in the season) are more likely to beat the spread in the current game. In general, they conclude that bettors value current information too highly, and conversely place too little value on longer term performance. That conclusion is congruent with some stock market momentum/contrarian views on stock performance. Gray and Gray then use the information to generate probit regression models to predict the probability that a team will cover the spread. Gray and Gray find several strategies that would beat the 52.4% win percentage in out-of-sample experiments (along with some inconsistencies). They also point out that some of the advantages in wagering strategies tend to dissipate over time.

Vergin (2001), using data from the 1981-1995 seasons, considers 11 different betting strategies based on presumed bettor overreaction to the most recent performance and outstanding positive performance. He finds that bettors do indeed overreact to outstanding positive performance and recent information, but that bettors do not overreact to outstanding negative performance. Vergin suggests that bettors can use such information to their advantage in making wagers, but warns that the market and therefore this pattern may not hold for the future.

A paper by Paul and Weinbach (2002) is a departure from the analysis of the spread in NFL games. They (as do we in this paper) target the over/under wager, constructing simple betting rules in a search for profitable methods. These authors posit that rooting for high scores is more attractive than rooting for low scores. Ceteris paribus, then, bettors would be more likely to choose “over” bets. Paul and Weinbach show that from 1979-2000, the under bet won 51% of all games. When the over/under line was high (exceeded the mean), the under bet won with increasing frequency. For example, when the line exceeded 47.5 points, the under bet was successful in 58.7% of the games. This result can be interpreted as a violation of the EMH at least with respect to the over/under line.

Levitt (of Freakonomics fame) approaches the efficiency question from a different perspective. It is clear that if NFL bets are balanced, the bookmaker will profit by collecting $11 for each $10 paid out. As we suggested earlier, bookmakers at times take a “position” on unbalanced bets, on the assumption that the bookmaker knows more about a particular wager than the bettors. Levitt presents evidence that the spread on games is not set according to market efficiency. For example, using data from the 2001-2002 seasons, he shows that home underdogs beat the spread in 58% of the games, and twice as much was bet on the visiting favorites. Bookmakers did not “move the line” to balance these bets, thus increasing their profits as the visiting favorite failed to cover in 58% of the cases.

Dare and Holland (2004) re-specify work by Dare and MacDonald (1996) and Gray and Gray (1997) and find no evidence of the momentum effect suggested by Gray and Gray, and some, but less, evidence of the home underdog bias that has been consistently pointed out as a violation of the EMH. Dare and Holland ultimately conclude that the bias they find is too small to reject a null hypothesis of efficient markets, and also that the bias may be too small to exploit in a gambling framework.

Still more recently, Borghesi (2007) analyzes NFL spreads in terms of game day weather conditions. He finds that game day temperatures affect performance, especially for home teams playing in the coldest temperatures. These teams outperform expectations in part because the opponents were adversely acclimatized (for example, a warm weather team visiting a cold weather team). Borghesi shows this bias persists even after controlling for the home underdog advantage.

METHODS
We focus on the total points scored in NFL games and the corresponding over/under line for that game. With the objective of estimating regression equations for home and away team scoring, data were gathered for the 2010-11 season for the analysis. The variables include:
TP = total points scored for the home and visiting teams for each game played
PO = passing offense in yards per game
RO = rushing offense in yards per game
PD = passing defense in yards per game
RD = rushing defense in yards per game
GA = “give aways,” offensive turnovers per game
TA = “take aways,” defensive turnovers per game
D = a dummy variable equal to 1 if the game is played in a closed dome, 0 otherwise
PP = points scored by a given team in their prior game
L = the over/under betting line on the game

Match-ups Matter (we think)
The general regression format is based on the assumption that “match ups” are important in determining points scored in individual games. For example, if team “A” with the best passing offense is playing team “B” with the worst passing defense, ceteris paribus, team “A” would be expected to score many points. Similarly, a team with a very good rushing defense would be expected to allow relatively few points to a team with a poor rushing offense. In accord with this rationale, we formed the following variables:
PY = PO + PD = passing yards
RY = RO + RD = rushing yards

For example, suppose team “A” is averaging 325 yards (that’s high) per game in passing offense and is playing team “B” which is giving up 330 yards (also, of course, high) per game in passing defense. The total of 655 would predict many passing yards will be gained by team “A,” and likely many points will be scored by team “A.”

Similarly, we theorize that if a team’s offense that commits many turnovers plays a team whose defense causes many turnovers, points scored for the offensive team may be lower (and perhaps more points will be scored by the defensive team). For turnovers, we created variables similar to the passing and rushing yards in the previous paragraph:
TO = GA + TA, that is, turnovers = “give aways” for a given team plus “take aways” for the opposition team.
The dome variable will be a check to see if teams score more (or fewer) points if the game is played indoors.
The variable for points scored in the prior game (PP) is intended to check for streakiness in scoring. That is, if a team scores many (or few) points in a given game, are they likely to have a similar performance in the ensuing game?

We also test to ascertain whether or not scoring is contagious. That is, if a given team scores many (or few) points, is the other team likely to score many (or few) points as well? We test for this by two-stage least squares regressions in which the predicted points scored by each team serve as explanatory variables in the companion equation.

General Regression Equations
The general sets of regressions attempted are of the form:
where the subscripts h and v refer to the home and visiting teams respectively, and the i subscript indicates a particular game.

Equations such as 1 and 2 are estimated using data for weeks 5 through 17 of the 2010-11 season. We chose to wait until week five to begin the estimations so that statistics on offense, defense, turnovers, etc., are more reliable than would be the case for earlier weeks.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Descriptive Statistics
Table I contains some summary statistics for the data set. Teams averaged approximately 223 yards passing per game (offense or defense, of course) for the season, and they averaged approximately 115 yards rushing. The statistics reported on the rushing and passing standard deviations without parentheses are for the offenses and the defensive standard deviations are (as you might guess) in parentheses. Interestingly, passing defense is less variable across teams than is passing offense (we hypothesize that teams must be more balanced on defense to keep other teams from exploiting an obvious defensive weakness, but teams may be relatively unbalanced offensively and still be successful [see the 2011 Packers, for example, who ranked near the top in passing offense and near the bottom in rushing defense]). Home teams scored approximately 23.2 points on average for the season and outscored the visitors by 1.7 points. Total points averaged 44.5 in 2010-2011 and the over/under line averaged 42.8 (the difference between these means is statistically significant at α < .10; the calculated value for the t-test of paired samples is approximately 1.92). Not surprisingly, the standard deviation was much smaller for the line than for total points. Table I: Summary Statistics

Regression Results
Though equations 1 and 2 from above represent our theoretical foundation, we did not find empirical support for the dome effect, points scored in the prior game, or for turnovers in predicting points for either the home or away teams. Thus we do not report regressions with those variables included (such estimations are available from the authors upon request). Since our objective is to produce predictions based on variables (and their effects) that are known prior to the games, we updated the equations weekly and checked for effects for those excluded variables. We did not find convincing evidence that any of the excluded variables should be included in the predictive equations.

The dome effect in a previous paper (see Pfitzner, Lang, & Rishel, 2009) found that teams scored approximately 5.4 more points when the game was played in a closed dome stadium for the 2005-2006 season. However, for the 2010-2011 season, games played in domes averaged 45.4 points and games played outdoors averaged 44.3. That difference is not statistically significant; the t-test for independent samples yields a calculated value of 0.54. The dome effect may be idiosyncratic in that, in some seasons, the high scoring teams may happen to be those who play home games in domed stadiums.

The representative estimated equations (at the end of the 16th week) are given in Table II. For the home points equation, the passing yardage and the rushing yardage are significant at α < .01, and α < .05 levels, respectively. The equation explains a modest 4.2% ( ) of the variance in home points scored. On the other hand, the F-statistic indicates that the overall equation meets the test of significance at α < .01. The estimated coefficients for the variables have the anticipated signs. To interpret those coefficients, an additional 100 yards passing (recall that this is the sum of the home team’s passing offense and the visitor’s passing defense) implies approximately 4.3 additional points for the home team, whereas an additional 100 yards rushing implies approximately 4.2 additional points. Table II: Regression Results for Total Points Scored

The visiting team estimation yields a similar equation in terms of the overall fit. The explanatory variables are statistically significant—the passing yardage variable at α < .05, and the rushing yardage variable is significant at α < .01. The equation explains only 3.7% ( ) of the variance in visiting team points, and the F-statistic implies overall significance at α < .05. The coefficients perhaps suggest a more important role for rushing than for passing in scoring for the visiting team. If the coefficients are to be believed, an additional 100 yards passing yields approximately 2.8 points for the visiting team, and an additional 100 yards rushing is worth 6.7 points. The reader may find such low values to be of concern, but recognize that the variables for which we are attempting estimates are very difficult to predict and are subject to wide variation. As we show in a later section, the lines on the games are much easier to predict. The model is best judged by its prediction qualities—here based on wagering success. Other Hypotheses
Another hypothesis we wished to entertain is whether or not scoring is contagious. A priori, we surmised that points scored in given games for visiting and home teams would be positively related. In keeping with our earlier work, there is no evidence that such is the case. The estimated simple correlation coefficient between home team and visiting team points is -0.106, which is not statistically different from zero and “wrong” signed according to our intuition. Our initial thinking was that if team “A” scores and perhaps takes a lead, team “B” has greater incentive to score. An obvious complicating factor is that a given team may dominate time of possession, thus preventing the opposing team opportunities to score. We also experimented with two-stage least squares to test the hypotheses that scoring was contagious. In that formulation we developed a “predicted points” variable for the home team, entered that variable as an independent variable in the visiting team equation, and reversed the procedure for the home team equation. Neither of the predicted points variables were statistically significant. The variable was positively signed for the home team equation, and negatively signed for the away team equation.

As indicated above, we also find no evidence that teams are “streaky” with respect to points scored. In short, we find that points scored in the immediately prior week do not contribute to the explanation of points scored in the current week. That conclusion holds up for the regressions in section VI as well.
Finally, though turnovers clearly matter in who wins or loses, there is no evidence from our work that measuring teams’ turnovers per game prior to the current game aids in predicting points scored by the individual teams.

Wagering on the Over/Under Line
In this simulated wagering project we use the estimated equations to predict scores of the home and away teams for all of the games played over weeks 8 through week 17 (end of the regular season). The points predicted in this manner are then compared to the over/under line for each game. We then simulate betting strategies on those games.

Out-of-Sample Method
Since it is widely known that betting strategies that yield profitable results “in sample,” are often failures in “out-of-sample” simulations, we use a sequentially updating regression technique for each week of games. Suppose, for example, we are predicting points for week 8. We then estimate equations TPhi and TPvi with the data from weeks 5, 6, and 7, then “feed” those equations with the known data for each game through the end of week 7, generating predicted points for the visiting and home team for all individual games in week 8. The predicted points are then totaled and compared to the over/under line for each game. Next we add the data from week 8, re-estimate equations TPhi and TPvi, and make predictions for week 9. The same updating procedure is then used to generate predictions for weeks 10 through 17. This method ensures that our results are not tainted with in-sample bias.

Betting Strategies
We entertain three betting strategies for the predicted points versus the over/under line on the games. These strategies are:
1. Bet only games for which our predicted total points differ from the line by more than 7 points.
2. Bet only games for which our predicted total points differ from the line by more than 5 points.
3. Bet all games for which our predicted total points differ from the line by any amount—in our case, all games.

As stated previously, a betting strategy on such games must predict correctly at least 52.4% of the time to be successful. If a given method cannot beat this 52.4% criterion, as a betting strategy it is deemed to be a failure.

Table III contains a summary of the results for the three betting strategies. The first betting strategy yields only ten “plays” over weeks 6 to 17. That betting strategy would have produced five wins, and five losses. For this (very) small sample, this strategy is, of course, not profitable, with only a 50% winning percentage. The second strategy (a differential greater than 5 points) yields 39 plays and a record of 17-10-0—a winning percentage of 63%. Finally for every game played, the method produces a still profitable record of 97-78-5, with the winning percentage at 55.4%.

Table III: Results of Different Betting Strategies

There is some consistency between these results and those we found for the 2005-2006 season. In that work we found that the “> 5 points” strategy produced a winning percentage of 60.5% based on 39 plays. Betting all games produced a winning percentage of 54%. Interestingly, the earlier research produced nine games with a greater than 10 point difference between the line and the predicted points whereas this work on 2010-2011 season produced only one play (which would have been a winning bet).

It is important to note that we make no adjustment for injuries, weather, and the like that would be considered by those who make other than simulated wagers. We offer these methods only as a guide, not as a final strategy.

Another Method of Predicting the Line and Total Points
Since we have collected and created variables that may be relevant to determining the betting line (and total points), in this section we investigate the relevancy of our variables in that context. For purposes of comparison, we estimate an equation for the over/under line and, separately, for the actual points scored. Further, we compare the results for the 2010-11 season with our results from prior research. These equations may be useful in confirming (or contradicting) the results of the previous sections, and may provide useful information applicable to wagering strategies.

The results of those regressions are contained in Table IV. We estimated regression equations for two seasons with the line as the dependent variable and all of the right-hand side variables (with the exception of turnovers) specified in equations 1 and 2. The estimations for the line are contained in the second column (2005-2006 season) and the fourth column (2010-2011 season). The estimations are remarkably similar. For the line for both seasons, every coefficient estimate is correctly signed and statistically significant at traditional levels of alpha, and for both equations. The line seems to be set on the assumption that teams are streaky (we conclude they are not), and the dome effect on the betting line seems to be a bit smaller in the most recent season.

Table IV: Regression Results for the Line and Total Points, 2005 and 2010 Seasons

As a comparison, we also estimated (far less successfully) an equation for total points with the same set of explanatory variables with those results reported in columns three and five of Table IV. Perhaps the most striking result of these regressions is that the regressions for the line explain fully two-thirds of the variance in that dependent variable and the equations for the actual points explains less than 6% of the variance in total points for either season, with only four of the seven explanatory variables meeting the test for statistical significance at traditional levels for 2005-2006 and only three for 2010-2011. Interestingly, the dome effect for total points for the earlier season estimated 5 additional points scored in dome games, and the corresponding estimate for the 2010-11 season was zero, when controlling for other effects. Recall that for the 2005-2006 season, 5.4 points more were scored in games played in domes, and the corresponding difference was only one point for the 2010-2011 season.

In short, and to be expected, the line is much easier to predict than is actual points scored. That is, the outcome of the games and points scored therein are not easily predicted. It is tempting to say, “That’s why they play the games.” At least two further observations are in order. First, consider the coefficients for points scored in the previous game. Those variables matter as would be anticipated on an a priori basis in determining the line for the game. However, they seem to play an insignificant (statistical or practical) role determining the actual points scored. This particular result may be interpreted as bettors placing too much emphasis on recent information, as other authors have suggested.

Finally, it also seems clear that the effect of playing indoors has dissipated between the two seasons for which we report results in Table IV. As we have emphasized, this may be simply the effect of teams who play many games indoors having poorer scoring teams for any particular year.

CONCLUSIONS
The regression results in this paper identify promising estimating equations for points scored by the home and away teams in individual games based on information known prior to the games. In a regression framework, we apply the model to three simulated betting procedures for NFL games during weeks 6 through 17 of the 2010-2011 season. Betting strategies based on the differences between our predictions and the over/under line produced profitable results for either all games at any differential or those for which our predictions differed from the betting line by 5 or more points.

Based on our earlier results finding profitable wagering strategies for the 2005-2006 season, we (and others) questioned whether these results will hold up in other seasons. Based on the results presented here—so far, so good.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
Betting on sports, the NFL in particular, is a very popular pastime among sports (or gambling) enthusiasts and a very lucrative business for bookmakers in Las Vegas and elsewhere. This research was conducted to determine whether successful wagering strategies could be developed based on regression equations used to predict points for the home and away teams in individual games. The sum of the predictions for the home and away teams, updated weekly, were then compared to the over/under line on individual NFL games. Certain betting strategies were identified as successful, and could therefore be used by those wanting to improve their odds while enjoying and increasing their interest in America’s favorite sport.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
None

REFERENCES
1. Badarinathi, R., & Kochman, L. (2001). Football betting and the efficient market hypothesis. The American Economist, 40(2), 52-55.

2. Borghesi, R. (2007). The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market. Journal of Economics and Business, 59, 340-354.

3. Boulier, B. L., Steckler, H. O., & Amundson, S. (2006). Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market. Applied Economics, 38, 279-284.

4. Dare, W. H., & Holland, A. S. (2004). Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods. Applied Economics, 36, 9-15.

5. Dare, W. H., & MacDonald, S. S. (1996). A generalized model for testing home and favourite team advantage in point spread markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 40, 295-318.

6. Gray, P. K., & Gray, S. F. (1997). Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market. The Journal of Finance, LII(4), 1725-1737.

7. Levitt, S. D. (2002). How do markets function? An empirical analysis of gambling on the National Football League. National Bureau of Economic Research (Working Paper No. 9422).
8. Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2002). Market efficiency and a profitable betting rule: Evidence from totals on professional football. Journal of Sports Economics, 3, 256-263.

9. Pfitzner, C. B., Lang, S. D., & Rishel, T. D. (2009). The determinants of scoring in NFL games and beating the over/under ;ine. New York Economic Review, 40, 28-39.

10. Pfitzner, C. B., Lang, S. D., & Rishel, T. D. (2006). Can regression help to predict total points scored in NFL games? In A. Avery (Ed.), The 2006 Southeastern INFORMS Conference Proceedings (pp. 312-317). Myrtle Beach, SC: Southeastern INFORMS.

11. Vergin, R. C. (2001). Overreaction in the NFL point spread market. Applied Financial Economics, 11, 497-509.

U.S. Sports Academy2014-02-17T13:03:34-06:00February 14th, 2014|Contemporary Sports Issues, General, Sports Management, Sports Studies and Sports Psychology|Comments Off

Analysis of Didactic Approaches to Teaching Young Children to Swim

Submitted by Anja Pečaver, Maja Pungeršek, Mateja Videmšek, Damir Karpljuk, Jože Štihec and Maja Meško.

ABSTRACT
Purpose: The study deals with an analysis of teaching swimming to children aged between four and eleven.

Methods: The study involved swimming instructors, teachers and coaches from different swimming schools in Slovenia. Data were acquired for 90 providers of swimming courses. The data were then analysed using descriptive statistic methods. The hypotheses were verified using Pearson’s χ² test and the Mann-Whitney test. Statistical significance was established at a 5% risk level.

Results: It was established that the differences between some parts of the exercise unit in terms of the frequency of use of a didactic movement game were related to gender and the acquired professional title. The didactic tools most frequently used during the swimming classes include kickboards, floating noodles and pool dive toys.

Conslusion: Children become more enthusiastic about learning to swim if information communication technology and didactic devices are used; it is easier to motivate them and attract their attention.

Applications in Sports: Swimming teachers should more often use didactic flotation devices whitch will fullfil children’s interest for swimming.

INTRODUCTION
It is extremely important for children to engage in a sport activity. Already at an early age they should be offered a variety of motor activities so as to broaden their horizons (16). In recent times, the age limit at which a child is expected to swim and have good swimming knowledge has decreased considerably. These days we expect children to swim already at the start of primary school whereas in the past children developed this ability at the end of primary school (17). Many reasons speak in favour of teaching children to swim as early as possible, with one of them clearly being to protect them from drowning. This is one reason that the new physical education curriculum for primary schools (10) includes a compulsory 20-hour swimming course in the second or third grade (at the age of 7–9 years). According to British experts, the most appropriate time to learn to swim is the three-year period from the age of eight to eleven because the learning process is fast and relaxed, children are motivated and few pupils skip classes (6). Relying on the results of her study, Škafar Novak (18) states it is reasonable to teach swimming at two age levels, namely getting children accustomed to water in the first primary school grade (6–7 years) and teaching them to swim in the third primary school grade (8–9 years). Great progress in swimming “literacy” is seen already with the youngest generations who explore water and its environment. Today about 10% of babies at the age of six months and older (17) can swim. Moreover, an analysis of reports on the running of annual sport programmes in local communities reveals that 249 swimming courses were conducted in 2008 (186 in primary schools, 63 in kindergartens) involving a total of 8,972 children (9).

When learning to swim it is important that the programme underpinning the learning process is well structured and suitable for the specific age group and the previous knowledge of the learners, and that it is organised flawlessly (4, 14). Incorrect steps taken during a child’s first contact with water can considerably extend the process of learning to swim and result in a negative experience which could linger throughout their life (12, 19). We should be aware that children’s safety is crucial in all types of sport activities, and just as important as maintaining their positive attitude to sport. All of the above depend more or less on the teacher who must be acquainted with the various contents, methods and types of learning to be able to attain the set goals. Working with young age groups is particularly demanding as it requires special approaches, gradual work and reasonable planning of the entire training process.

When one thinks about water activities for children, images of joy, fun, pleasure and laughter come to mind. To maintain such positive feelings during exercise and also afterwards, the swimming instructor/teacher/coach must not only have good knowledge of swimming techniques and good demonstration skills but also master appropriate swimming teaching methods which, for young children, must be based on didactic play. Jurak and Kovač (6) emphasise that the number of lessons making up the swimming “literacy” campaign has been decreasing which is why the teacher must make the best of the time that is dedicated to learning swimming. This can be achieved by using a modern learning programme which also includes the use of an appropriate didactic movement game and a variety of didactic tools (12, 25).

Given the obstacles that commonly appear on the way to the set goal, swimming professionals must cope with different situations, some of which may be very stressful for both the learners and teachers alike. It is up to the teacher which method they will choose to solve the problems, and their choice depends on their education, work experience and mainly their gift for working with children. Kovač (10) established that children up to nine years of age are most often taught by professionals with the title “swimming instructor” who generally have 3 to 5 years of work experience. They use a variety of didactic tools in their work which is positively reflected in the high motivation of children and, consequently, the high percentage of children who have become completely accustomed to water by the end of the course.

The purpose of the study was to analyse the teaching of swimming to children aged between four and eleven. We aimed to establish which difficulties swimming instructors/teachers/coaches encounter in individual exercise units, to what extent they use different didactic tools and a didactic movement game. Another aim was to establish whether there were any statistically significant gender differences in terms of the selection of the group of learners, the frequency of use of a didactic movement game and the frequency of coping with problems related to the learner’s personality. Another aim was to establish any statistically significant differences in the frequency of use of a didactic movement game depending on the professional title acquired by the instructor/teacher/coach.

WORK METHODS
Study subjects
The study encompassed a sample of 90 professionals (71 swimming instructors, 16 swimming teachers and 3 swimming coaches) who conduct swimming courses in different places in Slovenia. The sample of subjects included 57.8% of women aged between 20 and 50 and 42.2% of men aged between 19 and 55 years. The survey questionnaires were handed out during a licensing seminar for swimming instructors.

Swimming aids
The study was underpinned by a survey questionnaire which was completed by instructors, teachers and coaches from different swimming schools in Slovenia. The survey questionnaire included 15 questions of which some were closed-ended while others involved a combination of open-ended and closed-ended questions. Absolute anonymity of the subjects was ensured.

Verification of the questionnaire’s reliability
Cronbach’s alpha is a coefficient of reliability or consistency. Its purpose is to establish how effectively a group of variables or items measures an individual one-dimensional latent composition. With a multidimensional structure the alpha coefficient is low (13).

The value of Cronbach’s alpha rises with an increase in the number of items in the questionnaire. When correlations between the items are low, the value of alpha is also low: the higher the correlation, the higher the alpha value. High correlations among the items prove that the latter are measuring the same basic problem or subject. In that case, we can conclude that their reliability is good, i.e. high. It has been assessed in theory that alpha values around 0.60 are still acceptable (13).

It was concluded that the questionnaire’s reliability is high ranging from 0.72 to a very high value of 0.816.

Procedure
The 90 swimming instructors, teachers and coaches who attended the licensing seminar for swimming instructors at the Faculty of Sport in Ljubljana received the survey questionnaires. The data were processed with the SPSS 19.0 (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software application. The Mann-Whitney test and Hi² test were conducted. Statistical significance was established at a 5% risk level.

Limitations of the study
The study was conducted among swimming teachers in Slovenian primary schools. The study is thus limited to Slovenia in geographical terms. It does not encompass any teachers of children with special needs and does not investigate the characteristics and problems of the didactical teaching of children with special needs.

RESULTS
The results of the survey questionnaire served as a basis for analysing the system of work in different swimming schools in Slovenia.

The analysis of work experience revealed that professionals with 3 to 4 years of experience (31.1%) were in the majority, followed by those with 1 to 2 years (26.6%) and those with 5 to 6 years (23.3%) of experience. The smallest share was that of professionals with 7 years of experience or more (18.9%).

More than three-quarters of the surveyed professionals attend expert seminars once every two years to refresh their previous knowledge and acquire new knowledge. This result was expected since most of the surveyed professionals hold the swimming instructor licence which must be ratified every two years by attending expert seminars. Ten percent of the subjects attend seminars once a year and 3.3% twice a year. Surprisingly, 11.1% of those surveyed answered that they never attend any seminars.

We were also interested in which children they would prefer to select for their group (Figure 1) and whether there were any statistically significant differences in terms of the professionals’ genders (Table 1).

Figure 1. Selection of a group depending on a professional’s gender

Only 18.9% of the surveyed professionals answered that it was irrelevant which group they teach, whereas others chose a group based on the learners’ age and knowledge. The results show that women prefer to teach the youngest children who are not yet accustomed to water or are unfamiliar with the swimming techniques, whereas men prefer learners who are accustomed to water and can swim 25 metres or more using one of the swimming techniques (Figure 1).

Table 1. Selection of a group depending on a professional’s gender

It can be asserted at a 5% risk level that there are statistically significant differences in the selection of a group in terms of the gender of the swimming instructor/teacher/coach (Table 1).

Given the importance of playing for the overall development of a child, the surveyed professionals were asked how frequently they used didactic movement games when teaching children to swim (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Use of a didactic game in the teaching of swimming

Using a 5-point Likert scale (with 1 meaning never and 5 always) the surveyed professionals assessed that they use a didactic movement game most often when getting children accustomed to putting their head under water (4.19), followed by the preparatory part of the exercise unit (4.12) and getting children accustomed to seeing under water (4.09). These are followed by getting children accustomed to exhaling in water (3.96), while sliding and in the main part of the exercise (both 3.5). The professionals use a didactic movement game the least in the actual teaching of swimming techniques (3.07) (Figure 2).

We were interested in whether any statistically significant differences in the frequency of using a didactic movement game when teaching swimming depend on a professional’s gender (Table 2).

Table 2. Use of a didactic motor game in specific parts of the exercise unit, with different contents, depending on a professional’s gender

It can be asserted at a 5% risk level that there are statistically significant differences in the frequency of use of a didactic movement game in the preparatory part of the exercise unit, when getting children accustomed to water resistance, putting their head under water, seeing under water and exhaling in water (Table 2). The female professionals use didactic movement games more frequently when teaching the abovementioned activities (Figure 2).

We were interested in whether any statistically significant differences in the frequency of use of a didactic movement game in the teaching of swimming depend on a teacher’s gender (Table 3).

Table 3. Use of a didactic movement game in the exercise unit depending on the acquired professional title

It can be asserted at a 5% risk level that there are statistically significant differences in getting children accustomed to water resistance, putting their head under water and exhaling in water (Table 3). The swimming professionals with lower titles (swimming instructors) more frequently use a didactic movement game in the abovementioned activities than the professionals who hold higher titles (swimming teachers).

Table 4. Use of a didactic movement game in specific parts of the exercise unit depending on the professional title

The frequency of the use of different didactic tools during the teaching process was also analysed (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Use of swimming aids

Analysis of the results shows (Figure 3) that in swimming schools the three most frequently used didactic tools include a kickboard (4.24), a floating noodle (4.11) and pool dive toys (3.60). Of all the above mentioned swimming aids the professionals only occasionally use pull buoys, swim hats/floating toys and rings/frames and only rarely mats and slides, whereas swimming balls and swimming belts are almost never used.

We were interested in how the swimming instructors/teachers/coaches acquaint children with the rules that must be observed in the swimming pool (Figure 4).

Figure 4. The method of acquainting children with the rules

The professionals most often employ the discussion method (85.6%). Less than 14% of the answers to this question fit into the categories: by setting an example, using a stimulation game, with picture materials and by using all of the methods mentioned (Figure 4).

The respondents were asked how they impart new swimming contents to children. They had to mark the listed learning methods from 1 to 5, with 1 meaning never and 5 always (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Method of imparting new contents

Figure 5 shows that a personal demonstration in the water is the method professionals use in almost every exercise unit to impart new contents to children (4.64). Personal demonstration on land ranks second (4.5). The professionals often use the explanation and discussion methods (4.19 and 4.13, respectively). Sometimes they use metaphors, comparisons (e.g. leap like a dolphin) and conceptions (3.24). It is surprising that they almost never use picture materials and video recordings (1.37).

In the study, we enquired into the problems the instructors/teachers/coaches deal with during the pedagogical process (Figure 6).

Figure 6. The frequency of problems related to a child’s personality the professionals deal with

Figure 6 shows that the professionals most frequently deal with fear (3.46) during swimming lessons. In terms of the frequency of occurrence, that is followed by motor abilities (3.19), stubbornness and audacity or mischief (3.13). Disobedience (2.99) is also in the middle of the range. The sixth place in terms of frequency is held by lack of persistence (2.62) and the penultimate one to apathy (2.46). The least frequent is aggressiveness (1.93).

We were also interested in whether any statistically significant differences in the frequency of dealing with problems related to a child’s personality depend on a professional’s gender (Table 5).

Table 5. Frequency of dealing with problems depending on a professional’s gender

It can be asserted at a 5% risk level that there are no statistically significant differences in the frequency of dealing with problems related to a child’s personality that depend on a professional’s gender (Table 5).

A prerequisite for the high-quality implementation of swimming courses is a swimming facility which complies with basic health, safety and pedagogical standards. The surveyed professionals were asked how frequently they encounter poor working conditions (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Frequency of encountering poor working conditions

Figure 7 shows that the surveyed professionals most often deal with cold water – it was graded with 2.37 points, which means they encounter it sometimes. The next two are excessive noise in the swimming pool (2.33) and not enough space for exercise (2.31). Only rarely do the professionals deal with a damaged area surrounding the pool (2.09), a lack of swimming aids (2.04), too shallow/deep water (1.91), too many learners in the group (1.77) and the last-ranking dirty water (1.61).

At the end the swimming instructors/teachers/coaches were asked to explain how they choose the method for resolving problems encountered during the pedagogical process (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Demonstration of the frequency of problem-solving methods

The surveyed professionals most often choose the problem solving methods they became acquainted with during additional trainings such as seminars and courses; these methods were assessed with 3.60. Slightly fewer professionals use methods stemming from their own experience acquired during training sessions in clubs or sport societies (3.27). In third place is knowledge acquired in school and/or at a faculty (3.21). Professionals help themselves the least with the experience they have acquired in their home environment based on behavioural patterns in the family and the examples set by parents. This was assessed with 3.14.

DISCUSSION
Teaching young children to swim requires the use of methodical procedures, good knowledge of different games and the handling of swimming aids as well as a lot of patience, dedication and energy (14). The study established that women prefer to teach the youngest children, especially those who are not yet accustomed to water or are unfamiliar with the swimming techniques, whereas men prefer to teach children who are already accustomed to water and can swim 25 metres or more using one of the swimming techniques.

Emotional learning takes place as long as there is an emotional link with the subject of learning; when the link is broken, children become weary and they turn their attention to other things and no longer accept information. If the games are carefully chosen they will engage the child’s emotions sufficiently (2, 11, 21). The study shows that swimming professionals only occasionally use a didactic movement game in the actual teaching of swimming techniques. This is of great concern because it shows that swimming professionals are not aware that children, even when they are already accustomed to water, are still children whose basic desire, need and right is to play and to enjoy playing. The results show that professionals with lower titles (swimming instructors) and who are female use didactic games in some swimming course activities considerably more than men. Playfulness is the prerequisite for a game and should combine freedom, relaxedness and an absence of fear. We believe that too many instructors/teachers/coaches refuse to rediscover the child within themselves and to descend to the child’s level, or are incapable of doing this. In their analysis of skiing teaching methods for the youngest, Dobida and Videmšek (5) also established that didactic games were much too rarely used in practice and that their use declines with the increasing skiing knowledge of a child.

The use of appropriate didactic tools adds to the quality of the exercise, while also making it more lively (8). The analysis of the results shows that in swimming schools the three most frequently used didactic tools included kickboards, floating noodles and pool dive toys. In fact, these are very commonly used swimming aids and can be used to get a learner accustomed to water and to teach them the basics of the swimming technique. Of all the above mentioned aids, swimming professionals occasionally use pull buoys, swimming hats/floating toys and rings/frames and only rarely mats and slides, whereas swimming balls and swimming belts are almost never used. The abovementioned aids break the monotony of the exercise, enable the learner to gain some independence in the water and provide for diversity in the learning process, and so they are an important motivational tool for learners. It is important that the aids are suitable (made of safe materials), in vivid colours, of the appropriate size etc. (22). Sometimes, the use of didactic tools for teaching non-swimmers was limited solely to a kickboard and balls or, in many cases, there were no tools at all (6, 15). Today, swimming instructors/teachers/coaches have many didactic tools available that enable the transfer of information in the psychomotor cognitive process; they facilitate the demonstration of a specific movement as well as the transfer and acceptance of different pieces of information which influence the final knowledge of the swimming course participant. It is difficult to imagine any sport activity without appropriate tools. An exercise becomes dull and is difficult to implement, especially with the youngest children. Didactic tools should be selected based on the set goals and children’s level of development. The availability of tools most often depends on financial resources; however, with a little resourcefulness one can make tools by themselves or borrow them.

In all sport exercises specific rules and regulations apply that must be followed by those implementing activities and the learners. Also in a pool or a swimming facility one must observe the rules and, most importantly, respect oneself and other people. The purpose of the signs set up around pools and swimming facilities is to inform swimmers about the water depth, prohibitions and types of danger (14). Therefore, we were interested in studying how the swimming instructors/teachers/coaches acquaint children with the rules that must be observed in the swimming pool. The swimming professionals most often only employ the discussion method. Only a few professionals set their own example, use a stimulation game and picture materials even though these are the methods that attract a child’s attention the most.

The surveyed professionals were asked how they impart new swimming contents to children. The demonstration method plays a particularly important role in the implementation of a physical education process for the youngest. It allows children to obtain a clear idea of the movement they are expected to perform. The analysis of the answers to the abovementioned survey questions shows that the professionals are aware of the above, as personal demonstration in the water and personal demonstration on land were ranked first and second, respectively. The professionals often use the explanation and discussion methods. Learning strategies are quite rarely used, namely, comparisons, metaphors and conceptions functioning as cognitive aids in the process of learning new contents and systematically supporting cognitive processes related to knowledge and the acquiring of new knowledge (1, 23). Those who run swimming courses know too little about the learning strategies which help learners achieve the set goals faster and easier. The swimming professionals almost never use picture material and video recordings. Children become more enthusiastic about learning to swim if information communication technology is used; it is easier to motivate them and attract their attention.

As a group consists of children with different behavioural characteristics and peculiarities, many things can happen while teaching them to swim (11). We enquired about the problems instructors/teachers/coaches deal with during the pedagogical process. The surveyed professionals noted that the greatest burden is a child’s fear of water which is a consequence of their negative experience with water. This fear is often unintentionally created by parents and the heads of swimming courses if they incessantly warn children about the dangers of water. As expected, the second place was occupied by poorly developed motor abilities of children which represent a great problem of modern times. Namely, children spend most of their leisure time at home, watching TV or sitting in front of a computer. Fear and poor motor abilities are followed by stubbornness, audacity and disobedience. We established no statistically significant differences in the frequency of dealing with problems related to the child’s personality depending on a swimming professional’s gender. All of the abovementioned problems are a consequence of the fast pace of living since these days parents do not spend enough time with their children. The latter learn many things from TV shows and computer games. The last three places among all problems were taken by a lack of persistence, apathy and aggressiveness. In one of their studies, Štihec, Bežek, Videmšek, and Karpljuk (20) found that physical education teachers often have to cope with a lack of discipline, excessive boisterousness, a failure to follow instructions, unauthorised absences, pupils’ lack of motivation, potentially dangerous situations/activities for pupils etc. during their work which can lead to a conflict situation.

The prerequisite for the high-quality implementation of a swimming course is appropriate working conditions. The swimming facility must meet basic health, safety and pedagogical standards (3). The surveyed professionals were asked how frequently they encounter poor working conditions and they ranked contact with cold water at the top of the problem list. Therefore, it is very important that children do not stand still during the swimming course but perform different motor tasks all the time. The surveyed professionals also reported that excessive noise in the swimming pool and insufficient space for exercise were quite annoying. Only rarely do the professionals deal with a damaged area surrounding the pool, a lack of swimming aids, too shallow/deep water, too many learners in the group and dirty water.

If the swimming instructors/teachers/coaches encounter problems during the pedagogical process they most often choose problem-solving methods they have learned about during additional trainings such as seminars and courses. In second place is the method stemming from their own experience which was acquired during trainings in clubs or sport societies. This is followed by knowledge acquired at school or a faculty, whereas the method the instructors/teachers/coaches use the least is their experience they have acquired in their home environment (examples set by parents and other members of the family).

CONCLUSION
The swimming learning model has been developed in Slovenia for already 50 years. The Slovenian theoretical design and practical implementation have thus approached the models of some of the most developed European countries such as Sweden and the Netherlands (7). In slightly less than a decade, swimming knowledge in Slovenia has improved by almost 20% due to the systematic approach to individual levels of the teaching of swimming, monitoring of an individual’s progress after each level, the intertwining of compulsory and elective school programmes as well as the projects within the National Sport Programme, a number of systemic measures throughout all these years and public co-financing (9).

The quality of the teacher’s expert work primarily depends on their professional qualifications or knowledge, personality, abilities, creativity and authority (8, 24). When teaching the youngest, one should be aware that children are not just a miniature copy of adults but are specific learners with their own needs, requirements and last but not least desires. One has to be familiar with the different paths to the goal that must be adjusted to children. Therefore, when teaching these age categories swimming instructors/teachers/coaches must consider a child’s developmental characteristics, adjust the didactic approaches and include different didactic tools in the process. Finally, it is very important that learning to swim becomes a pleasant and interesting experience for the child, that it awakens positive feelings in them so that they will continue to engage in recreational swimming later in life.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
We have to be aware that a didactic game is a fundamental method of work and approach to working with children, but the study shows that swimming professionals only occasionally use a didactic movement game in the actual teaching of swimming techniques. Therefore didactic motor game is still underused in practice; its use decreasing with the increasing level of child’s swimming skills. Children need and right is to play and to enjoy playing, so swimming teachers should more often use didactic flotation devices.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Authors agree that this research has non-financial conflicts or interest. This includes all monetary reimbursement, salary, stocks or shares in any company.

REFERENCES
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2. Coakley, J. (2011). Youth sports what counts as “positive development”. Journal of Sport & Social Issues, 35(3), 306–324.

3. Coates, E., & Coates, A. (2007). Young children talking and drawing. International Journal of Early Years Education, 14(3), 221–241.

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U.S. Sports Academy2014-02-14T11:39:43-06:00February 14th, 2014|Contemporary Sports Issues, General, Sports Exercise Science, Sports Studies and Sports Psychology|Comments Off

Perceptions of Running Performance: The Role of Clothing Fit

Submitted by Christie Zunker, PhD, Trisha Karr, PhD, Roberta Trattner Sherman, PhD, FAED, Ron A. Thompson, PhD, FAED, Li Cao, MS, Ross D. Crosby, PhD and James E. Mitchell, MD.

ABSTRACT
This study examined the relationship between clothing fit and perceived fitness level. Participants included 2,386 adults who completed an online survey after a running event. The survey included four questions related to photographs of athletic models wearing loose-fitting and tight-fitting clothing: (1) Which event do you think the model took part in? (2) What do you think is the main reason he/she took part in the event? (3) How well do you think this person performed? and (4) How confident are you that your running time beat this person’s time? Results showed participants were more likely to believe athletes wearing tight-fitting clothing ran further and faster than athletes wearing loose-fitting clothing; and were less confident in their abilities to run faster than athletes wearing tight-fitting clothing than those who wore loose-fitting clothing.

These findings suggest clothing fit influences perception of athletic ability among runners. Athletes making upward comparisons may become increasingly dissatisfied with their appearance and at risk for avoidance of certain sports, decreased amounts of time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity, and experience feelings of inferiority that negatively influence sport performance.

INTRODUCTION
Sociocultural comparisons and perceived pressure to be thin can foster body dissatisfaction (15); however, some individuals report a preference for athletic-ideal body shapes over a thin-ideal (13). Comparing oneself to a fit peer can affect body satisfaction and the amount of time one engages in physical activity. For example, a study by Wasilenko and colleagues (2007) with female undergraduates found that women stopped exercising sooner and felt less satisfied with their bodies when they exercised near a woman they perceived as physically fit wearing shorts and a tight tank top as compared to exercising near an unfit woman wearing baggy pants and a baggy sweatshirt (23). Thus, social comparisons with peers may promote unhealthy behaviors or avoidance of certain activities. Additionally, individuals who experience weight-related stigmas may be less willing to participate in physical activity and avoid exercise due to low perceived competence and lack of motivation (16, 22).

Individuals who adopt an external observational view, or a self-objectified perspective of their bodies, may invest a considerable amount of psychological, physical, and financial resources into their appearance (1). Objectification theory proposes that these individuals internalize the observers’ view of their bodies (i.e., self-objectification) and become preoccupied with how their body appears to others without regard to how their body actually feels (10). Interviews with elite athletes indicate that they view an athlete’s body “as an object to be managed” (17p. 206). Self-objectifying thoughts and appearance concerns may be triggered in individuals with low self-esteem and exacerbated in certain environments (e.g., gyms with mirrors, women wearing revealing outfits;18). For example, a study by Fredrickson and colleagues (1998) in which participants (70% Caucasian) were instructed to try on either a swimsuit or a sweater in a dressing room with a full-length mirror and then complete a mathematics test showed that women in the swimsuit condition performed worse on the test than women in the sweater condition. The authors postulated that bodily shame diminished their mathematical performance since their mental energy was focused on their appearance (11). Another study by Hebl and colleagues (2004) with a similar protocol with men and women of Caucasian, African American, Hispanic, and Asian American descent, found that all participants had lower mathematics performance and appeared vulnerable to self-objectification during the swimsuit condition compared to the sweater condition (12). A study by Fredrickson and Harrison (2005) with 202 adolescent girls found that those with higher measures of self-objectification had poorer performance throwing a softball when asked to throw as hard as she could (9). These findings suggest that experiencing bodily shame may negatively influence one’s ability to engage in physical activities or other activities that require mental resources.

Clothing appears to be an important, but often ignored, part of how women manage their physical appearance (21). Wearing a swimsuit or other tight, body contouring uniform for a particular sport may be necessary for performance, but there are often gender discrepancies with women usually wearing much less clothing (19). Revealing sports uniforms may be perceived as stressors and exert pressure on some athletes functionality or performance advantage. Indeed, some individuals report feeling uncomfortable wearing revealing attire and may choose not to participate in a particular sport due to required uniforms.

Sports uniforms may contribute to unhealthy eating behaviors and eating disorders, especially among women. For example, female athletes often experience increased body image concerns, unhealthy body comparisons, and body dissatisfaction; however, satisfaction with uniform fit can improve body perceptions (6). In addition, female runners who report high identification with exercise and high value on having an athletic physique may be vulnerable to obligatory exercise (14).

Performance of sport participants depends upon a number of factors, including their psychological state, which may be influenced by their athletic clothing or uniform. Research by Feltman and Elliot (2011), Dreiskaemper and colleagues (2013), and Feather and colleagues (1997) suggests that the color and fit of an athlete’s uniform influences their psychological functioning. For example, during a simulated competition, participants reported feeling more dominant and threatening when wearing red as opposed to wearing blue (8). Participants also perceived their opponents as more dominant and threatening when the opponents were wearing red. Similarly, a study with male fighters taking part in an experimental combat situation found that those wearing a red jersey had significantly higher heart rates before, during, and after the fight compared to wearing a blue jersey (4). In addition, a study of female basketball players showed athletic clothing that provided a satisfactory fit on one’s body improved athletes’ body perceptions (6).

Findings from the literature (Feather and colleagues, 1997; Feltman and Elliott, 2011) indicate that clothing choices influence our perceptions and behaviors, which may affect us in a number of ways. At the present time, no studies to our knowledge have examined this phenomenon among endurance athletes. Thus, the purpose of the current study was to explore the role of clothing fit among a group of runners. We hypothesized that individuals would perceive both male and female athletes wearing tight fitting clothing to be more physically fit (i.e., ideal body type for their sport) than athletes wearing loose fitting clothing.

METHODS
Study participants
Participants included individuals aged 18 and older who took part in a running event at an annual marathon in the Midwestern United States. Participants were recruited through flyers, an advertisement as part of a packet distributed to runners, and through an email list serve managed by the race director. Institutional review board approval was received. Informed consent was obtained from all participants.

Anyone who took part in the race was eligible to take the survey. Participants included 2,386 adults who completed the online survey. Of the total sample, 588 completed the full marathon (24.6%), 1,101 completed the half marathon (46.1%), and 697 completed a shorter distance such as a 5K or 10K (29.2%). The mean age for participants was 37.2 years (SD = 10.8; range: 18-91), and the mean self-reported body mass index (BMI) was 24.4 (range: 15.3-47.8). Within the sample, 96.2% were Caucasian, 93.2% were employed, and 67.5% were married. As compensation for participation in the study, participants were entered into a drawing to win one of four gift cards valued at $50 to $200 for a local sporting goods store.

The online survey was available for three weeks (i.e., from the day of the event until three weeks following the event). A total of 3,117 individuals logged into the survey during this time. A flowchart provides a detailed description of how the final study participant sample was determined (see Figure 1). The final sample included 2,386 participants (76.5% of those who originally expressed interest in the study), after removing those who originally logged onto the website, but had missing data or did not meet eligibility criteria (e.g., did not report gender, under 18).

Measures
As part of an online survey, participants viewed four photographs of models wearing black athletic clothing. The photos were cropped to display the model from neck to ankle. The first photo (Model A) was of a woman wearing a loose-fitting, short-sleeved top and loose-fitting shorts. The second photo (Model B) was of the same woman wearing the same shirt, but in a smaller size and tighter-fitting shorts. Similarly, the third photo (Model C) was of a man wearing a loose-fitting outfit and the fourth photo (Model D) was the same man wearing a tighter outfit. A manipulation check to assess the validity of the photos as an assessment of perceived physical fitness level was performed by showing the four photos to ten individuals with expertise in physical fitness and eating disorders. Each individual independently viewed the photos and provided an open-ended response. As expected, each person who viewed the photos reported that Model A was perceived as less fit than Model B and Model C was perceived as less fit than Model D.

All participants viewed and answered questions related to each photo. Both males and females evaluated photos across genders. The first and second author developed 4 questions related to the photos: (1) Which event do you think she/he took part in? (there were 9 race options as answers to choose from: marathon, half marathon, 2-person relay, 4-person relay, 5k on Friday plus half marathon Saturday, 5k on Friday plus full marathon Saturday, 10k, 5k, and prefer not to answer); (2) What do you think is the main reason she/he took part in this event? (there were 5 answers to choose from: just for fun, to meet a personal goal, to qualify for another event, other reasons, and prefer not to answer); (3) How well do you think she/he performed? (there was a range of 5 answers: extremely well, finished in the top 25%; very well, finished in the top 50%; not so well, finished in the bottom 50%; poor, finished in the bottom 25%, and prefer not to answer);. (4) How confident are you that your running time beat this person’s time? (there was a rating scale of 6 choices: I feel certain that I ran faster, I am pretty certain that I ran faster, I think we ran about the same pace, I am pretty certain that I ran slower, I am certain I ran slower, and prefer not to answer).

Statistical Analysis
All analyses were conducted using SAS 9.2 GENMOD Procedure. Generalized linear models were built to compare the pair-wise contrasts about perceptions of models wearing athletic clothing by gender.

RESULTS
The first research question asked was “Which event do you think she/he took part in?” We hypothesized that more participants would report Model B (compared to Model A) and Model D (compared to Model C) ran the full marathon. The results show that male participants were 1.5 times more likely to believe that Model B ran the full marathon compared to Model A (OR = 1.465; p = .004). Female participants were 1.4 times more likely to believe that Model B ran the full marathon compared to Model A (OR = 1.409; p = .002).

Table 1. Odds ratios from contrast estimates of gender, perceptions of clothing fit, and athletic performance

The differences for Model D and C, the male models, were more dramatic. Male participants were 2.8 times more likely to believe that Model D ran the full marathon compared to Model C (OR = 2.817; p < .0001). Among men, the results showed that 40% believed Model D and only 17% thought Model C ran the full marathon. Female participants were 3.2 times more likely to believe that Model D ran the full marathon compared to Model C (OR = 3.19; p < .0001). For women, the results showed that 46% believed Model D and only 16% thought Model B ran the full marathon. The second research question asked was, “What do you think is the main reason she/he took part in this event?” We hypothesized that more participants would report Model B and D participated in the event to qualify for another running event. Male participants were 2.7 times more likely to believe Model B was trying to qualify for another event compared to Model A (OR = 2.710; p = .001). Female participants were 4.0 times more likely to believe Model B was trying to qualify for another event compared to Model A (OR = 3.958; p < .0001). Similar to the previous research question, the differences for the male model were more dramatic. Male participants were 6.3 times more likely to believe Model D was trying to qualify for another event compared to Model C (OR = 6.346; p < .0001). While female participants were 10.0 times more likely to believe Model D was trying to qualify for another event compared to Model C (OR = 9.972; p < .0001). See Table 1. The third research question asked was, “How well do you think she/he performed?” We hypothesized that more participants would report Model B and D finished in the top 25% of the runners. For males, the odds of Model B finishing in the top 25% were 4.8 times greater than Model A (OR = 4.791; p < .0001). For females, the odds of Model B finishing in the top 25% were 3.7 times greater than Model A (OR = 3.701; p < .0001). For males, the odds of Model D finishing in the top 25% were 5.3 times greater than Model C (OR = 5.338; p < .0001). For females, the odds of Model D finishing in the top 25% were 5.9 times greater than Model C (OR = 5.892; p < .0001). See Table 1. The fourth research question asked was, “How confident are you that your running time beat this person’s time?” For this question we were interested in how the participant compared him or herself to the same gender athlete (i.e., female participants compared themselves to Model B, male participants compared to Model D). We hypothesized that more women would report that they were less confident about their running time compared to Model B (i.e., believe that they ran slower than Model B). Indeed, female participants were 1.5 times less confident in beating the running time for Model B (OR = 0.687; p = .0008). We hypothesized that more men would report that they were less confident about their running time compared to Model D (i.e., believe that they ran slower than Model D). The results indicate that male participants were 2.6 times less confident in beating the running time for Model D (OR = 0.385; p < .0001). See Table 1. DISCUSSION
As hypothesized, we found both male and female participants believed that the models wearing the tighter-fitting clothing were more likely to have run the full marathon and were more likely to be trying to qualify for another event compared to the models wearing the loose-fitting clothing. Particularly interesting was the finding that female participants were 10 times more likely to think the male model in the tight-clothing was trying to qualify for another event as compared to the male model in the looser clothing. Our results also indicate that male and female participants believed the models in the tighter-fitting clothing were more likely to run faster than them. Additionally, the participants were less confident of their running time when asked to compare themselves to the model of the same gender wearing the tighter clothing. In general, athletes who wore tight-fitting clothing were perceived as more physically capable and competitively successful than those who wore loose-fitting clothing.
The present findings support previous research involving social comparison theory in that participants were less confident in their running abilities, or negatively influenced by viewing photos of fit peers (23). These results suggest that participants make upward comparisons (3), by comparing themselves with individuals who were viewed as faster runners (i.e., Models B and D), which in turn, was associated with reduced confidence in their abilities to perform.

Athletic identity, performance enhancement, and style preferences, such as fit, comfort, and aesthetics, are important factors to consider when determining sport clothing needs of consumers (5). For example, a female runner may be more likely to purchase a pair of shorts that offer adequate coverage and sweat-wicking properties than shorts with minimal coverage and lack quick drying material. Consumer spending may also be influenced by how they identify with well-recognized athletes (2). Furthermore, in line with self-objectification theory, an external perspective of body appearance may be influenced by a number of specific functions for clothing selection, such as clothing for comfort, camouflage purposes, and individuality (21). Findings from the present study add to this literature by demonstrating that clothing may also influence perceptions of athletic performance, including physical capability and competitiveness among runners.

CONCLUSIONS
This study has several limitations that should receive consideration. This was a cross-sectional study with an inherent selection bias because the persons who decided to complete the survey may be different from those who chose not to participate. Therefore these findings may not generalize to all runners who took part in this running event or other similar events. For example, the majority of participants who completed the current survey were Caucasian, but participants of other races may have different perceptions of athletic bodies and clothing fit (7).

In spite of these limitations, the current study provides important information about the potential contributing factor of clothing fit on perceived fitness levels of endurance athletes. One notable strength of this study is the number of participants from a variety of fitness levels, including individuals aged from 18 to 91 years with a wide range of experiences from the casual 5k run/walk to the more serious seasoned marathoner. The popularity of running events is increasing along with the number of persons entering these events each year, which suggests a growing need to continue research in this area.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
From a clinical perspective, we are concerned that tight-fitting attire will facilitate upward body comparisons. Such comparisons could result in athletes becoming body conscious and dissatisfied with their appearance, possibly resulting in unhealthy weight loss attempts, or avoidance of certain sports. However, the results of this study suggest another possible negative consequence related to tight fitting sport attire, but not for the person wearing it. If an individual views such attire as intended exclusively for those who are more physically fit, then the individual may experience feelings of inferiority or inadequacy and not feel fit enough to wear such attire while exercising or competing. Thus, she might feel too uncomfortable to wear sport attire that she associates with physical fitness and success in sport, not to mention attractiveness. Unfortunately that perception also appears to decrease confidence regarding one’s own sport performance, which would be an important treatment issue for sport psychologists, who focus on factors affecting sport performance. In essence, she may not feel that she can compete in regards to meeting societal pressures for a certain image that signifies athleticism. If the discomfort with attire and the lack of confidence is significant, the individual may withdraw from her sport/physical activity. Many individuals with low self-perceptions of their physical ability require extra encouragement and support to engage in sports (20).

Future studies should consider measuring clothing fit and perceived fitness level among different target groups, such as individuals who have never participated in a running event to elite athletes participating in intense competitions (e.g., Olympics; Ironman) and other geographical locations. It may be interesting to compare the current results with less physically active individuals as well as elite athletes. In addition, it may be helpful to gather more information on participants’ perceptions of themselves, self-worth, and their own confidence level of performance prior to and following exposure to photos.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors gratefully acknowledge the survey assistance provided by Annie Erickson and cooperation of the Fargo Marathon Committee.

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U.S. Sports Academy2014-02-13T16:19:20-06:00February 13th, 2014|Contemporary Sports Issues, General, Sports Marketing, Sports Studies and Sports Psychology|Comments Off